One of the most surprising alliances in the Lok Sabha Election 2019, is the partnership between Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh. It is considered as a shocking alliance, since both the parties have ended 25-year-old bitter rivalry joining hands to fight BJP and Congress in the Uttar Pradesh which has the highest number of Lok Sabha seats.
There are several reasons behind the alliance, one of the primary reasons is that both the parties need to consolidate their position. These parties were struggling to get retain their positions, when BJP backed by Narendra Modi wave which swept the entire country in the 2014. In the same year, when the Lok Sabha election concluded, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) could not win a single seat out of the 80 seats, while Samajwadi Party (SP) managed to win five seats. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 71 seats. In terms of polling percent, BJP garnered 42.63 %, while the Samajwadi Party got 22.35 % and BSP got around 19.77 %.
In 2017 Assembly elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the election by 278 seats out of 325 seats. The party was able to get 41.35 % without projecting a chief ministerial candidate before the election. Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won 54 and 19 seats respectively. They got around 28.08 % and 22.23 % votes.
The BSP-SP combine has potential to challenge the BJP's poll math. When we observe the 2014 Lok Sabha vote share, one can see a clear picture. In 2014, the BJP received around 43.3 percent of the votes and won 71 seats (90 per cent) of the 80 seats. This victory has been only possible since the BSP and SP which were in the opposition and had divided the votes. When we combine this new alliance, it would be around 42 percent which is almost equal to BJP alliance. If they had joined in the election they could have brought all their votes in a common alliance and won more seats than BJP.
There is a rising discontent among the people in Uttar Pradesh. Several opinion polls have predicted that UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's popularity has been slipped significantly in the past several months. Some of the most important factors are incidents of lynchings, cow slaughter, fake encounter killings by UP police. These have angered the common man and express their displeasure about the working of the government. Besides, unemployment, persistent problems in Agriculture, rising price of commodities, communal issues have hurt the people. Besides, the BJP was also accused of polarizing the election in communal lines.
SP-BSP combination has the capability to bring together of two strong social bases Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and the Dalits. This unification may actually turn the tables on the BJP. Besides, this alliance could avoid the split of Muslim votes as it did in the past. Many political experts believe that if the BJP is defeated in the Lok Sabha elections and Congress manages to win 100-plus seats in the Lok Sabha polls, the SP-BSP combine could extend their support to the centre. Besides, depending upon the seats they could also demand a share of power.
The most surprising alliance in the Lok Sabha Election 2019 could emerge as the strongest force in the entire country. With around 80 seats in the state, strong collaboration of the big political parties like SP and BSP has the capability to capitalise on the errors and mistakes committed by ruling BJP in the State. With around a month left for the polls, UP will be witnessing a bitterly fought election.