Maoists to form govt. in Nepal, how it will affect India.

Look the tryst of destiny. Primarily it was none less than comrade Prachanda who used to sneak into the Indian embassy premises in Nepal some months back for "political consultations". However, it is now the turn of Indian Ambassador Shiva Shanker Mukherjee to see comrade Prachanda. It is altogether a different matter that the Ambassador meets the Maoist leader. But why this Ambassador is chasing comrades? The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) led by Prachanda has achieved a massive win over its rivals, the Nepali Congress and the 'mainstream-left' Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), and is set to abolish 240-year-old monarchy, establish a federal republic and rewrite the Himalayan nation's constitution. A nervous looking Indian establishment is doing all it can in order to "calm down" the Maoists' possible wrath that they are sure to exhibit against India the moment they step in.

Traditionally, India has backed the Nepali Congress and was expecting a coalition government with the Maoists with Nepali Congress at the helm. India's policy toward Nepal has seen many twists and turns including a brief period when the establishment supported King Gyanendra's policy of crushing Maoists with the help of the army. Then it was our Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee who had suggested his own government not to block the supplies of the arms and ammunitions to Nepal to crush the Maoists. Relations between India's ruling establishment and Maoists reached a low when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi, the head of the ruling United Progressive Alliance, did not meet Prachanda during his visit to India last year.

Nepal Maoists who are trained in guerilla warfare are named as a terrorist organization by the US government. With Maoists win in Nepal, India now fears its own Maoist insurgency could get a boost. India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh, has previously identified Indian Maoists - a group known as Naxalites as the country's single biggest security threat. Some 834 people died in Maoist-related violence last year, including one attack in which the rebels slaughtered 55 policemen. No direct links between Nepali Maoists and Naxalites in India have been established. But what turn it will take in the near future; your guess is as good as mine. India's Naxalites say they are fighting for India's poor and landless - just as Nepal's Maoists did. When you have a Marxist government in Nepal, there may possibly be sympathies with Maoists here. It is too early to say anything.

A positive lesson for India would be to see how we can bring our own Maoists into the political mainstream. Nepal have set an example for their counterparts in India and stuck to the path of democracy to ride to power. India's own Maoists are battling the government in more than a half-dozen states, fighting to replace the state with a Maoist-style government. The Maoists in Nepal have given up arms and participated in the elections, which is a good sign not only for India but also for whole South Asian subcontinent.

Also India is pretty concerned with the Maoists' presumed insistence on changing the 1950 and other unequal treaties signed with Nepal at different intervals of history. These unequal treaties signed by Nepal and India provides ample "political leverage" to India to twist the Nepali arms as and when she so desires. Prachanda and his team may initiate fresh talks on securing greater benefits to Nepal from the past treaties/agreements/and understandings which have allowed India to practically "gulp" the Nepali waters at a dirt cheap price. To boot, the Upper Karnali and Arun-III has already been pocketed by India by seducing the India born Nepal's Prime Minister.

The Treaty of Peace and Friendship signed in 1950 defines the countries' relationship, allowing Nepalis and Indians to travel freely across each other's borders. Until 1969, it also allowed India to keep security positions on Nepal's border with China. The treaty, a precursor to trade and transit treaties between the two countries is considered unfavorable to Nepal by many. They believe it gave India major political and economic influence. Anyways so far the treaty has worked to Nepal's advantage because India has not insisted on reciprocity, be it work permits for Indian teachers or the right to buy property in Nepal. The Nepalese people don't need work permits and have gone on a home buying spree, creating an entire colony in Gurgaon near Delhi via benami transactions. Once Nepalese officials themselves had given up the idea of changing the treaty. India has proposed scrapping it if Nepal wishes to do so.

Also India wants to ensure that open border doesn't become a security threat. Indian is concerned about Pakistan using the Indo-Nepal border to send across troublemakers. China too is entrenched in the area. But in the end it is India's responsibility to "sanitize" the border, keep up surveillance, monitor the traffic, and build the infrastructure on its side. India needs cooperation from Nepal but also need to do her own job more vigorously.

Quite to the contrary, India can also hope to derive benefit from the end of status quo since the monarchy, for long, had been hostile to its interests. And to the extent the mandate for the Maoists can be interpreted as a "vote against Kathmandu", India can expect fresh opportunities to repair ties, which have frequently been strained by mutual suspicions.

So far the statements from Prachanda and others of his ilk have been sober and statesman-like, keeping a balanced approach between India and China. He recognizes that developments in Nepal are tied to India and the two share a special relationship. Since India controls the economic lifeline of Nepal and is its biggest trade partner, the Maoist-led government can ill afford to antagonize Delhi. In fact, the Maoist victory is an opportunity for India to revisit and correct its Nepal policy. Any misstep with the Maoists in Nepal could push the country toward China. Maoist victory can be seen as a double-edged weapon for India as it has the potential of both fueling the insurgency in India and the promise of hope at the grassroots level. The most important task for India's foreign office is to help shape events in Nepal so that New Delhi's vital interests are secure.

Maria Alby