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First advance estimates of GDP number

Posted on : 09 Jan 2020

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  • The Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) will release the first advance estimates of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2019-20.
  • The estimates will be based on the growth numbers of the first two quarters of the current fiscal as well as other higher frequency data.
  • The data is typically released one month ahead of the presentation of the Union budget. Prior to 2017, the first advance estimate used to be released in the last week of January as the budget was presented on 28 February. However, since 2017, the data has been released in the first week of January to help the government prepare its budget presented on 1 February.
  • The numbers will be released at a time when the Indian economy has seen a sharp slowdown in growth, surprising policy-makers. The Indian economy grew at a six-year low of 5 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively, in the quarters ending June and September.
  • The first advanced estimates will acknowledge the slowdown and estimate the GDP in both constant and current prices.
  • These numbers will help in the government’s budget-making process. Estimates of growth will help in calculating deficit numbers for the current fiscal. It will also form the basis for the government to estimate the growth numbers for 2020-21 to help in the tax collection and buoyancy and fiscal deficit estimates for the next fiscal.
  • MOSPI will release the second advance estimate of GDP on 28 February along with the GDP numbers for the quarter ended December. It will release the full year growth numbers for 2019-20 on 29 May along with the GDP numbers for the quarter ended March.
  • An analysis of previous years’ data shows that the final growth numbers differ from the first advance estimates.
  • For instance, for the year 2018-19, the first advance estimates showed that GDP will grow at 7.2 per cent in the year while the growth eventually was 6.8 per cent.

Article Related Questions

  1. With reference to first advance estimates of GDP number consider the following statements
    1.Ministry of Finance will release the first advance estimates of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
    2.These numbers will help in the government’s budget-making process.
    3.An analysis of previous years’ data shows that the final growth numbers differ from the first advance estimates.
    Which of the following statement is/are correct?

  2. 1.1 and 2 only

    2.2 only

    3.2 and 3 only

    4.1, 2 and 3

    Right Ans : 2 and 3 only

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