Elections and political equations in India are unpredictable. This statement is likely to be applicable for the coming general election in 2014.
Recently, there had been a considerable effort made by left parties (CPI, CPIM) to create a Third front. Third front is basically a coming together of various parties which are usually dominant at state level. They have formed an alliance to form government at centre.
The prospect of Third front can be considered good, because each regional party has a good support base from their respective states. Their collective support can make them a good lead.
However, in reality the prospects of such a non Congress and non BJP alliance succeeding in the general elections 2014 looks bleak.
The concept of Third front is full of ambiguities. Who would be the Prime Ministerial candidate? This is major issue because Third front is bunch full of aspiring Prime Ministers. Jayalalitha from AIADMK, Mulayam Singh from SP, Nitish Kumar from JDU, Naveen Patnaik from BJD, all are aspiring for the Prime Ministerial post.
Further there are considerable differences between each party. For example certain party backed the Lokpal bill, whereas others such as SP opposed it. So alliance of parties with such differences can break down at any moment. So there is a question mark on the government formation by the third front or if it does so whether it will run it for the full term.
The stable governments till date have only been formed either by Congress or the BJP. Never in the past had such an alliance of non Congress and non BJP front have led to the formation of a stable government. The VP Singh and H.D Deve Gowda government failed due to internal differences and lack of support.
The prospect of Third front looks poor because people desire growth and development. In case if such unstable government is formed, it can have adverse impact on overall economic growth of the country. Formation of such government will again lead to re-election further increasing the financial burden on government.
The idea of Third front exists only till the elections, because after the declaration of results, it will be difficult for them to be kept united. This is because regional parties are like migratory birds who may like to play the role of king maker either supporting the Congress or BJP in the formation of coalition government.
Furthermore the prospect of Third front is even bleaker because if we go by the number of seats it may win. Third front comprises of 11parties namely Left front that will get around 24 seats, SP around 22 seats, JDU around 19 seats, BJD around 14 seats, AIADMK around 9 seats, AGP and JDU(s) just 1seat. If we add on, the alliance may collectively get around 92 seats. So such a merger number do not have ability to form the government without indirect support of the Congress or BJP.
Thus it is clear that the Third front without Congress or BJP has no prospect to form the government. Even if it does so it will be an unstable government that may not last for long.
People in the country desire for a government which has a full majority that can last full term, third front do not live up such expectations.
Raghuram R Bachu