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Imprints of 2009 on The Year 2010

As usual, the year will be full of events and happenings, and expectations like any other year. 2010 will be different from the year 2009 in many ways, but the opinions, ideas, and decisions of 2009 would certainly impact and shape the course of 2010. In the present year, we would closely follow some important developments of 2009 that would conclude or could transform in this year.

In 2010, recovery of the world economy from global economic recession will be tracked all along the year. It is a big question for all us whether we would be able to overcome the global meltdown completely or just survive it with counter actions and gain marginal growth, or as some analysts predict face future crisis.

The global slowdown continued in the whole of 2009 with signs of recovery in economic indicators of many Nations, positive economic growth for some and negative in others. According to World Bank and other predictions, world economy in 2010 will have sluggish growth with a growth rate of 2%. But, the recovery rate of economies will vary across the globe. Emerging economies are expected to recover faster compared to USA, Germany, France and other developed Nations. Asian economies like China, India and Indonesia will play a big role in reversing the crisis. It is viewed that US economy will have a limited and uneven growth; the unemployment rate could go down. While many economies in 2010, including developed ones predictably will continue to suffer.

The progress of global economy will depend much on new and revised regulations for stable financial system, balanced growth between social and private sectors, liquidity rates and government spending. Long-term effective solutions, continuation of stimulus packages and a unified approach to solve the crisis will be very essential for global recovery.

The Indian economy registered a good 7.9% growth in the third quarter of 2009, which was mostly powered by the private sector. In 2010, India is expected to have a strong performance making it to bounce back from the recession. The economy is predicted to post a growth of 7-8% in 2010. On the other hand, fiscal deficit, high inflation and future threats can challenge the growth rate.

Year 2009 saw increased foreign institutional investments in India, resulting in Rupee appreciation against a weakening Dollar. With high liquidity rate this scenario could continue in 2010. For Indian stock markets, 2009 was a good year as it attracted large FIIs. If FII inflow continues in 2010, stock markets are expected to do well. The Industrial growth raised by 11.7% in November 2009 because of increase in demand and production, and a boost given by consumer durables sector. Future of this sector in 2010 will largely depend on electricity production. In 2009, export markets suffered due to Rupee appreciation and decrease in demands. To tackle this situation, the commerce ministry will announce financial aids to certain export sectors this year.

In the previous year, agriculture productivity was hit by poor monsoon. Owing to deficient monsoon, market constraints and other financial factors the year witnessed high food inflation rates. Analysts predict this condition is expected to prevail in 2010.

Moving from economy to environment, 2009 observed discussions and debates on global warming and climate change. 15th Conference of the Parties was held in Copenhagen in December this year, to sign a global climate agreement on legally binding emission reducing targets. The meeting ended without signing an agreement. Although, the summit did not adopt the Copenhagen accord, it is seen as a first step towards legally binding emission cuts. In December 2010, the 16th Conference of the Parties will be held in Mexico City.

2010 will carry important National news and events which would be linked to 2009. National Counter Terrorism Centre will be set by the end of this year. Central Government will design a mechanism and roadmap to resolve the present crisis in Andhra Pradesh. The verdict in 26/11 Mumbai attack case is expected this year. 2010 could see some action on the bifurcation of Home ministry. Low-cost indigenously developed A (H1N1) Influenza vaccines and testing tools will be available in India. ISRO will make progress in Chandrayaan-II mission. The proposed Goods and Services Tax would come into effect. Auction for 3G mobile services will take place this year. New Delhi will be gearing up to host the nineteenth Commonwealth games scheduled from 3-14 October 2010.

-S Ramamurthy

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